Crude did what crude it known for.. a highly volatile move.. bina helmet ke bike na chalana aur bina stoploss ke crude na trade karna :D.. So the double hatrick will have to wait to be completed for some months now :p. Luckily got stopped out at some profit level. 10 is nothing compared to 100..but its way better than -40 .
So the reason for the sudden reversal was the oversupply concerns.. well.. any way..heres the chart:
I will be willing to take a short soon. lets see.
SILVER LONG taken..interesting trade..
So there was a trendline breakout finally visible so i entered half. Now had i been the inexperienced trader i was earlier i would have freaked out at seeing it fall 400 points from my entry point! when the stoploss was 500 points.. but thats what the market has taught me till now is to not panic. I acutally took this as blessing and added the other half here..for a lower average entry price.. anyways i was going to lose much less compared to normal full entry trades in this case as i had just gone half.
It reversed from that point and how!!! ALREADY IN 400-500 points profit 🙂 ..and have a look at the candle… this is going up big 😀 (hopefully).. staying long with a stoploss at breakeven
well it was not technical really and was literally expecting a loser here. I had really entered only on the basis of the inventory data. And VOILA ..went down..never quite broke below 3290..and then rocket..now it is a official buy!! according to the mechanical system i follow for crude..but i was entered way before that 😀 .. feels good..this is once in a time specualtive non analysis trade..and glad that i took it..(most of them are regrets..but as i mentioned in last article ..i would have regretted NOT going into this onw..) ..so yeee crude :D..scoring many 100 point rallys lately.. double hatrick if this one succeeds :D.. lets see
Silver can give bullish break any time now.. lets see..
i seriously didnot think twice before going long in crude tonight. i just saw this..
and i lost my mind..
In my 1 year experience ..i have never seen SO MUCH difference in the actual and forecast.. just went long half.. and then kept adding when price kept going down..
average price of 3314 on my longs. Will exit if it goes below 3270-65 range. I wont mind if this is a losing trade but i HAD to get in this one ..and i say this with no shame… i would have regretted it.
No regrets if this one is a loser. Its just a thing i wanted to do.. but anyways just for the sake of it ill see the charts and analyze .
So price did bounce from the lower trendline it seems. Also 50 is acting like a very strong support. Lets see..
My only worry in this trade is crude falling WAY LOWER on tomorrows market open..then i ll have to exit with a considerable loss.. iam talking about -50 range from entry price.. that will give a considerable loss.. else the risk is managed and ill lose the same sum i risk for any other trade.
ps: IT WAS FUN SEEING ALL THE INVESTING.COM COMMENTS..SO MANY PEOPLE ..SO MANY PERSPECTIVES..I WAS LITERALLY READING THEM FOR 30 MINUTES.. made me fall in love of trading all over again ❤
WELL today being gandhi jayanti markets were closed today..MCX should have been open open yaar..i would have booked my crude shorts 😛 ..
anyway this is not the final result as i dont know how the market will open tomorrow .but technically this is what would have iddely happened if today was not a holiday..
as shown in last article..the target was a replica of last lower high move..and that has been rather confirmtably achieved by dear crude..
will book if market opens at target range during indian time.
silver is doing something interesting..it does seem that it will eventually breakout bullish anytime now..but the shape of the trendlines too doesnt quite give the entire scenario here.. i have set a small target of – points this time as iam unsure.. will stay if i see clear bearish movement..else get out.. Also the bullish move will be even stronger.. lets see
IN THE LAST ARTICLE i forgot to mention the reason behind crude short..so basically it clearly broke last support zi\one quite aggressively.. hence the short.. also there is a 20,50 crossover on the hourly pattern which adds to the confirmation of bearish sentiment.
But the fundamentals are too good for this to go much lower .as i said in last article. .expect this to be a higher low formation.. and end up in the 0.236/.3862 retracement area somewhere are bounce back again. Lets see..
So sadly the last silver trade was a loss making one. I will admit that i broke a rule and went before a breakout/retest but it was due to a bullish engulfing forming on the daily..that doesnt happen often..but i did go at some pullback as per plan so the loss is minimal. Also silver seems to go bullish anytime now..just waiting for the breakout now until then i wont enter this time…
Crude on the other hand gave a nice reversal trade.. and i actually got a pretty decent entry ..40 points from day high ..but 60 points from day low :p ..
I mostly expect this move to be a higher low formation ..so wont set a big target this time like the last trade in crude. But quite big red candles while falling down i must admit. This being crude.. tight sl’s in place 😛 lets see.
Ill be very frank here.. i do have a swing mechanical system in crude oil.. its like i have to check my phone for five seconds every hour and check if there is signal to buy or sell. Gives around 2-300 points a month .. which goes to upto 10-15 points a day..try doing that everyday on intraday with a full time job :p but..its just because its crude..its volatile..
In everything else i believe that naked trading/price action/trendline work wonders..
The silver trade is still going on right..ill just show the trendline trades since july in this..
Also as seen the latest trade taken in silver is a potential traingle breakout on the 4 hourly chart. The only reason i went in before the breakout was because of the bullish engulfing on the daily. also the sl is just below the triangle base..so that was a good trade when risk to reward is considered. 400 points risk for around 1500 points.
Just for the record to reassure me the power of trendlines iam posting this :p Lets see if the current silver trade is profitable
Looks like silver may reverse from here.. so i have entered half here..if this breaks the trendline from here ill go all in..and if it falls below this level ill also add more bcoz that was the plan anyways.. low risk high reward trade following yesterdays bullish engulfing.